Birth Crisis: Are We Heading Towards a Childless World?

What happened? Did we get tired of diapers or are we simply more busy watching streaming series?

The truth is that this change is not just a statistical curiosity; it is shaping up to be the most profound demographic change of the 21st century.

What is happening?

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, in its study published in The Lancet, suggests that almost all countries will face a decrease in their population by the end of the century.

Japan, for example, could see its population halved by 2100. Imagine a baseball game in Tokyo with more robots than people!

Aging: A Trap or an Advantage?

The equation is clear: fewer births and more grandparents. By the end of the century, those over 80 years old could equal the number of births. Are we ready for a world with fewer children? The answer is not so simple.

While some see only problems, others, like Rafael Rofman from CIPPEC, believe there are opportunities: if we invest in education and skills, we could become more developed countries.

But if we continue as we are, we could end up like the Titanic, without lifeboats.

Why are families smaller?

Women today choose to study and work before starting a family. Urbanization also plays its role: less space, fewer children. Karen Guzzo from the University of North Carolina mentions that globalization and labor changes have altered the path to adulthood, pushing young people to move to cities, study more, and, in the process, delay parenthood.

Sarah Hayford from Ohio State University reminds us that the significant declines in birth rates began around 2008, during the Great Recession. It seems that individual priorities have not changed as much as the economic conditions surrounding them.

Who wants to have children when you can't even find a decent coffee without waiting in line?

And now what?

The decline in birth rates seems irreversible. Natalist policies have tried to change this trend, but with modest results. However, not all is lost. Rofman suggests that, instead of trying to reverse the inevitable, we should adapt to this new context and focus on improving the quality of life for future generations.

Nonetheless, the impact will be felt: fewer workers, more grandparents needing care, and an economy that will have to reinvent itself. Artificial intelligence and automation may take jobs, but fields like elder care will still require human hands. Are we ready for a world where caring for our elders is more critical than ever?

The key lies in innovation and solidarity. We need to rethink how to finance pensions and health needs in a world with fewer children. It's not just a numbers issue; it's a matter of the future.

Are we ready to face it? Or will we continue to watch the world change from the sofa? Only time will tell.